The GTA Market Just Did Something It Hasn’t Done Since Last Fall
After six consecutive months of year-over-year sales declines, something shifted in March 2026. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported that GTA REALTORS® recorded 5,039 home sales through the MLS® System last month, up 1.7% compared to March 2025. It was the first year-over-year sales increase since September 2025, and it’s generating significant buzz across the industry.
But here’s what makes this moment genuinely interesting: sales went up while prices went down. The average selling price of $1,017,796 was 6.7% lower than a year ago, and the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark dropped 7.4% year-over-year. That’s a combination that doesn’t happen often, and it creates a very specific kind of opportunity.
Getting ready to buy or sell? Call (416-884-8027) or email (team@amblerhomes.com) to reach us.
What the Numbers Actually Mean
Let’s break down what TRREB released on April 7:
- 5,039 homes sold in March 2026 — up 1.7% year-over-year, up 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis
- Average price: $1,017,796, down 6.7% from March 2025
- MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: down 7.4% year-over-year
- New listings: 14,442, down 16.7% year-over-year
- Detached homes: average ~$1.34M, down year-over-year
- Condos: average ~$620,000, down approximately 9% year-over-year
- Semi-detached: saw the steepest decline at 9.5% year-over-year
The critical detail buried in that listing number: new supply is shrinking. When sales rise and new listings fall by 16.7% in the same month, market conditions tighten, even if prices haven’t responded yet.
“Buyers continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price across major market segments in the last month,” said TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer. “However, if market conditions continue to tighten, as they did in March, selling prices could start levelling off as we move through the remainder of 2026.”
Why Is This Happening Now?
Several forces converged in March to push buyers off the sidelines:
- Improved affordability. With prices down 6.7% from last year and mortgage rates easing from their 2023–2024 peaks, the monthly carrying costs on a GTA home have improved meaningfully. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate sits at 2.25%, and 5-year fixed rates are available around 4.04–4.09% for high-ratio mortgages.
- The spring effect. March and April historically see the highest transaction volumes in the GTA. Buyers who waited through an uncertain winter are re-engaging.
- The Ontario HST rebate. A new provincial program taking effect April 1, 2026 gives buyers of new homes up to $1.5 million a full rebate on the 8% provincial portion of HST, worth up to $130,000. This is a significant incentive that appears to be pulling buyers to act now rather than wait.
- A window of negotiating power. Buyers know that if this trend continues, the leverage they have today may not exist by fall. Some are choosing to move before the recovery fully takes hold.
The Supply Warning No One Is Talking About Enough
Here’s what’s being underreported in the coverage of March’s data: TRREB CEO John DiMichele issued a stark warning in the same press release.
“The GTA housing supply pipeline is in danger of running dry in the medium-to-long term.”
With new listings down 16.7% year-over-year and pre-construction condo starts at multi-year lows due to the condo market correction, the volume of homes that will be completed and available in 2027–2029 is dramatically smaller than what’s needed. DiMichele specifically pointed to the need for “missing middle” home types – the semi-detached homes, townhouses, and mid-rise buildings that bridge the gap between condos and detached houses.
This has a direct implication for buyers sitting on the fence: the homes available at today’s prices may represent the last window before a supply squeeze reasserts itself.
Is This the Bottom? What the Experts Say
BNN Bloomberg ran a segment April 7 with Royal LePage realtor Tom Storey, who said plainly: “We just don’t have enough proof to call the bottom yet.” That’s an honest answer. Month-over-month prices are essentially flat on a seasonally adjusted basis, and Bloomberg noted that Toronto home prices have “slipped back to 2020 levels”, giving up five years of gains.
The bear case: global trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, and cautious consumer sentiment could keep buyers hesitant through spring and summer. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld acknowledged that “positive news on trade and geopolitical issues would help improve consumer confidence.”
The bull case: a tightening market with shrinking listings, an HST incentive, affordable prices relative to 2022 peaks, and an incoming supply shortage all point to a strengthening market in H2 2026.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in the GTA
If you’re a buyer: You still have negotiating power, but the clock is ticking. Sales are rising, listings are falling, and government incentives are live. The combination of lower prices and the HST rebate for new construction may not last. This is a window.
If you’re a seller: The market is stabilizing but prices aren’t recovering yet. Overpricing remains the #1 mistake sellers make in this environment. Properly positioned homes are moving, and with listings down 16.7%, well-priced properties face less competition than they did a year ago.
If you’re an investor: The condo sector is the most complex story. Values are down significantly, but rental demand remains, and the Ontario government’s new program to convert stagnating developer inventory to rentals could put a floor under condo prices.
Ready to navigate the spring 2026 market with a plan?
The Ambler Team specializes in GTA real estate and knows this market inside out. Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, reach out for a no-obligation consultation.
Getting ready to buy or sell? Call (416-884-8027) or email (team@amblerhomes.com) to reach us.
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